Time for those Dragon Projections!

I promised this awhile ago but I’ll explain it all again.

  1. These are most definitely NOT predictions. I have no idea what will be a Dragon Award finalist and there are way to many unknowns to make a decent guess. In particular as far as I can tell the rules (which have reappeared) allow the admins to do anything.
  2. The titles listed are based on what I have found trawling the web looking for people who were, to some degree or other, promoting works to be nominated for a Dragon Award. I found a lot but who knows what I missed. I did find some stuff on Facebook but it and other places are hard to search inside of. Also, maybe some authors are promoting the Dragons like crazy in forums I cna’t access or on their email lists. Who knows? So large pinches of salt please.
  3. There is though a ‘status’ column and that is even a greater testament to hubris in data collection. The higher the status the more wallop I think the promotion of the work had – either in multiple places or by venues with known impact (e.g. the Rabid slate). “Low” though also includes stuff whose promotional impact I don’t know. Some are authors I don’t know but who may have some legion of highly devoted followers ever ready to throw their bodies and email addresses at an awards website. It is NOT any kind of assessment of the quality or even the popularity of the work – so if you an author and you see ‘very low’ next to your book, don’t be disheartened.
  4. So it is all a bit pointless then? No, no. Basically the more stuff on the list that appears as Dragon Awards finalists, the more the finalists were determined by overt public campaigning on blogs – and predominately from the Rabid and Scrappy corners. The less stuff on the list making it as finalists, then the less impact that kind of campaigning had on the Dragon Awards.
  5. So it is like a measure gauge of a kind rather than a prediction or even a projection I guess.
  6. But if there is a really good match between the list and the finalists then yeah I totally predicted it and am the guru of everything and ignore everything I just said.

Category

Work

Status

Best Science Fiction Novel

ALBION LOST by Richard Fox

High

Best Science Fiction Novel

Escaping Infinity by Richard Paolinelli

Medium

Best Science Fiction Novel

The Secret Kings by Brian Niemeier

Medium

Best Science Fiction Novel

Rise by Brian Guthrie

Very Low

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

A Sea of Skulls by Vox Day

Very High

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn

Low

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

Ascend Online by Luke Chmilenko

Very Low

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

Draigon Weather by Paige L. Christie

Very Low

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Swan Knight’s Son by John C. Wright

Very High

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Rachel and the Many Splendored Dreamland by L. Jagi Lamplighter.

Medium

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Towers of Earth by J.C.Conway

Very Low

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Firebrand: A Steeplejack Novel by A. J. Hartley

Very Low

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Cathedrals of Glass: A Planet of Blood and Ice by A.J.Hartley

Very Low

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

STARSHIP LIBERATOR by B.V. Larson and David VanDyke

High

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

THE SPAN OF EMPIRE, by Eric Flint and David Carrico

Medium

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Star Realms: Rescue Run by Jon Del Arroz.

Medium

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Allies and Enemies: Exiles by Amy J. Murphy

Very Low

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Invasion: Resistance by J.F. Holmes

Very Low

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Caine’s Mutiny by Charles E Gannon

Very Low

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

In Dread Silence by C.J. Carella

Very Low

Best Alternate History Novel

NO GODS, ONLY DAIMONS by Kai Wai Cheah

High

Best Alternate History Novel

Breath of Earth by Beth Cato.

Medium

Best Alternate History Novel

Another Girl, Another Planet  by Louis Antonelli

Low

Best Alternate History Novel

Crazy Horses by David J. West

Low

Best Apocalyptic Novel

THE RETREAT #4: ALAMO by Craig diLouie, with Stephen Knight and Joe McKinney

High

Best Apocalyptic Novel

A Place Outside The Wild by Daniel Humphreys

Medium

Best Apocalyptic Novel

Codename: Unsub by Declan Finn & A. Yoskowitz

Low

Best Apocalyptic Novel

ZK: Fallen by J.F. Holmes

Very Low

Best Horror Novel

THE HIDDEN PEOPLE by Alison Littlewood

High

Best Horror Novel

Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn

Medium

Best Horror Novel

Blood of Invidia by Tom Tinney and Morgen Batten

Low

Best Horror Novel

Murphy’s Law of Vampires by Declan Finn

Low

Best Comic Book

Motor Girl #1 by Terry Moore.

Low

Best Comic Book

Green Valley, vol. 1, from Image

Low

Best Comic Book

Martian Magazine Comics, by Wormwood

Low

Best Comic Book

Red Sonja: The Long Walk to Oblivion by writer Erik Burnham and artist Tom Mandrake.

Low

Best Graphic Novel

Chew vol 12. – Sour Grapes by John Layman and Rob Guillory

Low

Best Graphic Novel

Kingsway West by Greg Pak, Dark Horse

Low

Best Graphic Novel

Nemu Nemu – Buzz Off Part One, Volume 4

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

LUCKY MAN by Sky 1

High

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Killjoys

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Sleepy Hollow

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Voltron: Legendary Defender, Netflix

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

LOGAN directed by James Mangold

High

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Passengers

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Doctor Strange

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Strike Witches: The Movie, Kazuhiro Takamura

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Wonder Woman

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

TOTAL WAR: WARHAMMER by Sega

High

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

Final Fantasy XV

Medium

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

LEGENDS OF CALLASIA by Boomzap Entertainment  (the mobile release was Sep 2016)

High

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

Epic Card Game Digital

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

GLOOMHAVEN by Cephalofair Games

High

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Hero Realms

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Scythe from Stonemaier Game

Low

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

DARK SOULS: THE BOARD GAME by Steamforged Games

High

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

Star Wars: Destiny

Low

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16 comments

  1. Scurra

    Well at least I can back one of those that you have rated “high” – I really like “Lucky Man”. I wonder if the support is due to the fact that the main villain is a woman who has to be redeemed by the love of a good man? And there were also relatively high profile plots about the horrible gays and the Chinese mafia. So I guess that maybe it garnered some alt-right popularity? Hey ho. I guess that sometimes I have to just accept that I will like some things that people I really don’t like also like. (Does that sentence make sense?)

    And thank you for going to places so we don’t have to. 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Lurkertype

    I’m thinking “The Expanse” might do well — it has enough ‘splosions for the RWNJ and isn’t notably political other than “terrorists bad, humans good, alien shit scary”.

    Sleepy Hollow fridged the black woman who was the SWM’s equal/superior and replaced her with a nice subservient character played by a former gamerchick personality, so I’m thinking that’s good with Pups and Scrappys.

    Like

    • Matt Y

      The Expanse has a lot of politics going for it. The Belters are often shown as empathetic because Mars and Earth treat them as disposable. There’s a bunch of questions related to the ethics of ownership of an unknown powerful weapon and turning that lose on a population (if, when and how). If there’s an ongoing message in the show it’s that those in power often abuse it.

      Like

  3. Pingback: Pixel Scroll 7/25/17 J.J. Abrams Apologizes For Pixelwashing In File Trek: Into Scrollness | File 770
    • camestrosfelapton

      No worries. Chapters 2,3,4,5 probably tomorrow from the world’s least competent critics.

      I kind of like it – do you know the expression “It does what it says on the tin”? It’s a British thing maybe (it was from a set of hardware/paint products adverts) but I like to use it for books that are clear what they are and do that thing with competence.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Jon Del Arroz

        Thanks for checking it out. I trying to give something that I’d like to read: a Star Wars-y space opera adventure with good characters that come across as real, and no politics bogging it down. 🙂

        Like

      • camestrosfelapton

        No politics? You have a conflict between the Star Empire and the Trade Federation and the alien Lyl’Bra. You literally have a room full of politicians talking to your main hero. You have a full on worker’s riot and portray *some* (not all) of the corporate execs arguing that the drugged workers should be left when they fall despite the toxic environment to save money.

        You’ve got lots of politics and that is no bad thing. Tip 1: don’t downplay positive features of your own books!

        Liked by 2 people

    • Kathodus

      It’s amazing how every response I’ve ever seen you make online serves as a perfect example of Christian righteousness in action.

      Like

      • JJ

        Kathodus: It’s amazing how every response I’ve ever seen you make online serves as a perfect example of Christian righteousness in action.

        Except for the trolling. And the harassment. And the lying. But yeah, other than that, a perfect example of Christian self-righteousness.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. GCK

    “No politics? You have a conflict between the Star Empire and the Trade Federation and the alien Lyl’Bra. You literally have a room full of politicians talking to your main hero. You have a full on worker’s riot and portray *some* (not all) of the corporate execs arguing that the drugged workers should be left when they fall despite the toxic environment to save money.”

    He doesn’t mean that kind of politics. He means references to current political issues – and certainly, everyone would agree that one should never have references to current politics in SF about the future; that would be like having “Star Trek” episodes about the Vietnam War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Private_Little_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Taste_of_Armageddon) or stories in the 1950s about McCarthyism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Martian_Way “The Brooklyn Project”). That kind of political reference is totally out of place in SF – as out of place as telling stories about getting laid on a yacht would be in front of Cub Scouts (another thing that Del would stand forthrightly against).

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Pingback: Dragon Award Analysis – First Look | Camestros Felapton

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