Dragon Award Analysis – First Look

So for starters look at this list of finalists and this set of projections from me.

So how did I do? Not bad, if I say so myself. 32 works on my list ended up being finalists and 25 didn’t. That’s a nice sweet spot for looking at what did and didn’t make it. More after the fold because there is going to be a LOT of tables.

First up, let’s use the results to answer the question: was it worthwhile for the Rabids and the Scrappy-Doos to campaign for Dragon Award nominations? The answer is: yes.

However, the Rabid success was mixed in an interesting way. In general, the Rabid nominees that were Castalia House books were finalists but the ones that weren’t were less successful.

These are the Rabid nominees that made it:

Category	Nominee
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	A Sea of Skulls by Vox Day
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	Swan Knight’s Son by John C. Wright
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Starship Liberator by B.V. Larson and David VanDyke
Best Alternate History Novel	No Gods, Only Daimons by Kai Wai Cheah
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	Stan Lee’s Lucky Man, Sky1
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	Logan directed by James Mangold
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game	Gloomhaven by Cephalofair Games
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game	Dark Souls: The Board Game by Steamforged Games

The first four are Castalia House books. The others are in non-book categories and may have been nominated regardless. The Rabid losers are more akin to the hostage-style nominees.

Category	Nominee
Best Science Fiction Novel	[not nominated]-ALBION LOST by Richard Fox
Best Apocalyptic Novel	[not nominated]-THE RETREAT #4: ALAMO by Craig diLouie, with Stephen Knight and Joe McKinney
Best Horror Novel	[not nominated]-THE HIDDEN PEOPLE by Alison Littlewood *
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	[not nominated]-TOTAL WAR: WARHAMMER by Sega
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	[not nominated]-LEGENDS OF CALLASIA by Boomzap Entertainment  (the mobile release was Sep 2016)

Anything Rabid nominated got a “High” status ranking on my projections in terms of likelihood of being nominated. Two works got “Very High” in terms of likelihood by being both Rabid and also on Scrappy-Doo recommendation lists – the Vox Day book and the John C Wright book.

I think the difference between the Castalia Rabids getting in and the Hostage-Book Rabids not getting in suggests that Vox put some effort into getting the house books nominated and there being less discipline for the non-Castalia House works.

The next rung down on my projections was “Medium” – these were works that appeared on multiple significant lists but weren’t Rabid nominees. The “Medium” category swept the board:

Category	Nominee
Best Science Fiction Novel	Escaping Infinity by Richard Paolinelli
Best Science Fiction Novel	The Secret Kings by Brian Niemeier
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	Rachel and the Many Splendored Dreamland by L. Jagi Lamplighter
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	The Span of Empire by Eric Flint and David Carrico
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Star Realms: Rescue Run by Jon Del Arroz
Best Alternate History Novel	Breath of Earth by Beth Cato
Best Apocalyptic Novel	A Place Outside the Wild by Daniel Humphreys
Best Horror Novel	Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	Final Fantasy XV by Square Enix

All the works classed as Medium were nominated. The only non-novel was Final Fantasy XV which was an inevitable nominee anyway. The Eric Flint book wasn’t on multiple lists but I rated it Medium because of the general love for Flint and his association with the Dragons and his early request for nominations.

The “Low” category was more of a mix of stuff. In some cases this was because my estimate was based mainly on who was doing the nominating – consequently an author with a strong personal following that I wasn’t aware of, may have been rated “low” when in fact they had a legion of fans voting. Without numbers from the Dragon Awards, we will never know. I also classed movies like Doctor Strange and Wonder Woman as “low” just for consistency, even though I expected they would get organic votes.

Just looking at “Low” winners in the novel categories:

Category	Nominee
Best Alternate History Novel	Another Girl, Another Planet by Lou Antonelli
Best Apocalyptic Novel	Codename: Unsub by Declan Finn and Allan Yoskowitz
Best Horror Novel	Blood of Invidia by Tom Tinney and Morgen Batten

Lou Antonelli had done some spruiking of his book in the comment sections of some of the other Dragon slates and that maybe paid off.

More losers in the non-novels for “Low” but just looking at the novels we get:

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	[different category]-Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn
Best Alternate History Novel	[not nominated]-Crazy Horses by David J. West
Best Horror Novel	[not nominated]-Murphy’s Law of Vampires by Declan Finn

Declan Finn is pretty much in every category. He wrote lots of posts about the awards in multiple venues. Ten out of ten for effort I guess!

The “Very Low” status was more a measure of my lack of information more than anything. These tended to be works that were passing mentions in relation to the awards. The wins here are less surprising in hindsight.

Category	Nominee
Best Science Fiction Novel	Rise by Brian Guthrie
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	Firebrand by A.J. Hartley
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Aliies and Enemies: Exiles by Amy J. Murphy
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Iron Dragoons by Richard Fox
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Caine’s Mutiny by Charles E. Gannon
Best Apocalyptic Novel	ZK: Falling by J.F. Holmes

Gannon gets nominated for proper awards, Murphy got a dragon nomination last year, Hartley is fairly popular I believe. I’m less familiar with the others.

Mind you, the other book mentioned in passing by Hartley didn’t get nominated:

Category	Nominee
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	[not nominated]-Ascend Online by Luke Chmilenko
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	[not nominated]-Draigon Weather by Paige L. Christie
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	[not nominated]-Towers of Earth by J.C.Conway
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	[not nominated]-Cathedrals of Glass: A Planet of Blood and Ice by A.J.Hartley
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	[not nominated]-In Dread Silence by C.J. Carella

What I haven’t checked in any of the cases is whether they were eligible.

OK, that’s all for now. My aggregated list of the projections + actual nominees is here if you want to play around with things 🙂

*[ETA: The Hidden People by Alison Littlewood  this was recorded incorrectly on my sheet twice and so has appeared in the tables as both nominated and not nominated and as part of the Rabid slate and as not part of it. It was nominated. However, on File 770 Alison Littlewood has commented that she was unaware of the nomination and has asked to be withdrawn http://file770.com/?p=36736#comment-687152 ]

Category	Nominee	Status	Rabid?	Nominee	Novel
Best Science Fiction Novel	Escaping Infinity by Richard Paolinelli	Medium		Yes	Yes
Best Science Fiction Novel	The Secret Kings by Brian Niemeier	Medium		Yes	Yes
Best Science Fiction Novel	Rise by Brian Guthrie	Very Low		Yes	Yes
Best Science Fiction Novel	The Collapsing Empire by John Scalzi	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Science Fiction Novel	Space Tripping by Patrick Edwards	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Science Fiction Novel	Death’s End by Cixin Liu	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Science Fiction Novel	Babylon’s Ashes by James S.A. Corey	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Science Fiction Novel	A Closed and Common Orbit by Becky Chambers	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Science Fiction Novel	[not nominated]-ALBION LOST by Richard Fox	High	Rabid	No	Yes
–
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	A Sea of Skulls by Vox Day	Very High	Rabid*	Yes	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	Blood of the Earth by Faith Hunter	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	The Hearthstone Thief by Pippa DaCosta	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	Wings of Justice by Michael-Scott Earle	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	Monster Hunter Memoirs: Grunge by Larry Correia and John Ringo	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	Dangerous Ways by R.R. Virdi	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	Beast Master by Shayne Silvers	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	[different category]-Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn	Low		No	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	[not nominated]-Ascend Online by Luke Chmilenko	Very Low		No	Yes
Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)	[not nominated]-Draigon Weather by Paige L. Christie	Very Low		No	Yes
–
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	Swan Knight’s Son by John C. Wright	Very High	Rabid*	Yes	Yes
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	Rachel and the Many Splendored Dreamland by L. Jagi Lamplighter	Medium		Yes	Yes
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	Firebrand by A.J. Hartley	Very Low		Yes	Yes
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	Defy the Stars by Claudia Gray	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	It’s All Fun and Games by Dave Barrett	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	The Hammer of Thor by Rick Riordan	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	A Court of Wings and Ruin by Sarah J. Maas	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	[not nominated]-Towers of Earth by J.C.Conway	Very Low		No	Yes
Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel	[not nominated]-Cathedrals of Glass: A Planet of Blood and Ice by A.J.Hartley	Very Low		No	Yes
–
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Starship Liberator by B.V. Larson and David VanDyke	High	Rabid*	Yes	Yes
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	The Span of Empire by Eric Flint and David Carrico	Medium		Yes	Yes
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Star Realms: Rescue Run by Jon Del Arroz	Medium		Yes	Yes
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Aliies and Enemies: Exiles by Amy J. Murphy	Very Low		Yes	Yes
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Iron Dragoons by Richard Fox	Very Low		Yes	Yes
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Caine’s Mutiny by Charles E. Gannon	Very Low		Yes	Yes
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Cartwright’s Cavaliers by Mark Wandrey	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	Invasion: Resistance by J.F. Holmes	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel	[not nominated]-In Dread Silence by C.J. Carella	Very Low		No	Yes
–
Best Alternate History Novel	No Gods, Only Daimons by Kai Wai Cheah	High	Rabid*	Yes	Yes
Best Alternate History Novel	Breath of Earth by Beth Cato	Medium		Yes	Yes
Best Alternate History Novel	Another Girl, Another Planet by Lou Antonelli	Low		Yes	Yes
Best Alternate History Novel	Witchy Eye by D.J. Butler	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Alternate History Novel	A Change in Crime by D.R. Perry	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Alternate History Novel	1636: The Ottoman Onslaught by Eric Flint	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Alternate History Novel	Fallout: The Hot War by Harry Turtledove	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Alternate History Novel	The Last Days of New Paris by China Mieville	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Alternate History Novel	[not nominated]-Crazy Horses by David J. West	Low		No	Yes
–
Best Apocalyptic Novel	A Place Outside the Wild by Daniel Humphreys	Medium		Yes	Yes
Best Apocalyptic Novel	Codename: Unsub by Declan Finn and Allan Yoskowitz	Low		Yes	Yes
Best Apocalyptic Novel	ZK: Falling by J.F. Holmes	Very Low		Yes	Yes
Best Apocalyptic Novel	Walkaway by Cory Doctorow	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Apocalyptic Novel	The Obelisk Gate by N.K. Jemisin	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Apocalyptic Novel	American War by Omar El Akkad	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Apocalyptic Novel	The Seventh Age: Dawn by Rick Heinz	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Apocalyptic Novel	[not nominated]-THE RETREAT #4: ALAMO by Craig diLouie, with Stephen Knight and Joe McKinney	High	Rabid	No	Yes
–
Best Horror Novel	Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn	Medium		Yes	Yes
Best Horror Novel	Blood of Invidia by Tom Tinney and Morgen Batten	Low		Yes	Yes
Best Horror Novel	Donn’s Hill by Caryn Larrinaga	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Horror Novel	The Bleak December by Kevin G. Summers	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Horror Novel	A God in the Shed by J-F Dubeau	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Horror Novel	The Hidden People by Alison Littlewood*	High		Yes	Yes
Best Horror Novel	Nothing Left to Lose by Dan Wells	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Horror Novel	The Changeling by Victor LaValle	Organic		Yes	Yes
Best Horror Novel	[not nominated]-Murphy’s Law of Vampires by Declan Finn	Low		No	Yes
–
Best Comic Book	Motor Girl by Terry Moore	Low		Yes	No
Best Comic Book	The Dresden Files: Dog Men by Jim Butcher, Mark Powers, Diego Galindo	Organic		Yes	No
Best Comic Book	Buffy The Vampire Slayer Season Eleven by Christos Gage, Rebekah Isaacs	Organic		Yes	No
Best Comic Book	Monstress by Marjorie Liu, Sana Takeda	Organic		Yes	No
Best Comic Book	Saga by Brian K. Vaughan, Fiona Staples	Organic		Yes	No
Best Comic Book	Ms. Marvel by G. Willow Wilson, Takeshi Miyazawa	Organic		Yes	No
Best Comic Book	Wynonna Earp Legends by Beau Smith, Tim Rozon, Melanie Scrofano, Chris Evenhuis	Organic		Yes	No
Best Comic Book	[not nominated]-Green Valley, vol. 1, from Image	Low		No	No
Best Comic Book	[not nominated]-Martian Magazine Comics, by Wormwood	Low		No	No
Best Comic Book	[not nominated]-Red Sonja: The Long Walk to Oblivion by writer Erik Burnham and artist Tom Mandrake.	Low		No	No
–
Best Graphic Novel	My Favorite Thing is Monsters by Emil Ferris	Organic		Yes	No
Best Graphic Novel	Clive Barker Nightbreed #3 by Marc Andreyko, Clive Barker, Emmanuel Javier	Organic		Yes	No
Best Graphic Novel	March Book 3 by John Lewis, Andrew Aydin	Organic		Yes	No
Best Graphic Novel	Girl Genius: the Second Journey of Agatha Heterodyne, Book 2: The City of Lightning by Phil Foglio and Kaja Foglio	Organic		Yes	No
Best Graphic Novel	Love is Love by Marc Andreyko, Sarah Gaydos, James S. Rich	Organic		Yes	No
Best Graphic Novel	Stuck in My Head by J.R. Mounts	Organic		Yes	No
Best Graphic Novel	Jim Butcher’s The Dresden Files: Wild Card by Jim Butcher, Carlos Gomez	Organic		Yes	No
Best Graphic Novel	[not nominated]-Chew vol 12. – Sour Grapes by John Layman and Rob Guillory	Low		No	No
Best Graphic Novel	[not nominated]-Kingsway West by Greg Pak, Dark Horse	Low		No	No
Best Graphic Novel	[not nominated]-Nemu Nemu – Buzz Off Part One, Volume 4	Low		No	No
–
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	Stan Lee’s Lucky Man, Sky1	High	Rabid	Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	Stranger Things, Netflix	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	Wynonna Earp, Syfy	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	Lucifer, Fox	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	Marvel’s Agents of Shield, ABC	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	Westworld, HBO	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	The Expanse, Syfy	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	Doctor Who, BBC	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	[not nominated]-Killjoys	Low		No	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	[not nominated]-Sleepy Hollow	Low		No	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet	[not nominated]-Voltron: Legendary Defender, Netflix	Low		No	No
–
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	Logan directed by James Mangold	High	Rabid	Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	Passengers directed by Morten Tyldum	Low		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	Doctor Strange directed by Scott Derrickson	Low		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	Wonder Woman directed by Patty Jenkins	Low		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story directed by Gareth Edwards	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 directed by James Gunn	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	Arrival directed by Denis Villeneuve	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie	[not nominated]-Strike Witches: The Movie, Kazuhiro Takamura	Low		No	No
–
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	Final Fantasy XV by Square Enix	Medium		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild by Nintendo	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	Titanfall 2 by Respawn Entertainment	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	Dishonored 2 by Arkane Studios	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	NieR: Automata by PlatinumGames	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	Mass Effect: Andromeda by Bioware	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game	[not nominated]-TOTAL WAR: WARHAMMER by Sega	High	Rabid	No	No
–
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	Monument Valley 2 by Ustwogames	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	Super Mario Run by Nintendo	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	Con Man: The Game by Monkey Strength Productions	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	Pokemon GO by Niantic	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	Fire Emblem Heroes by Nintendo	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	Sky Dancer by Pine Entertainment	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	[not nominated]-LEGENDS OF CALLASIA by Boomzap Entertainment  (the mobile release was Sep 2016)	High	Rabid	No	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game	[not nominated]-Epic Card Game Digital	Low		No	No
–
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game	Gloomhaven by Cephalofair Games	High	Rabid	Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game	Scythe by Stonemaier Games	Low		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game	Hero Realms by White Wizard Games	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game	Mansions of Madness (Second Edition) by Fantasy Flight Games	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game	Betrayal at House on the Hill: Widow’s Walk by Avalon Hill	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game	Terraforming Mars by Stronghold Games	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game	[not nominated]-Hero Realms	Low		No	No
–
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game	Dark Souls: The Board Game by Steamforged Games	High	Rabid	Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game	Star Wars: Destiny by Fantasy Flight Games	Low		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game	A Shadow Across the Galaxy X-Wing Wave X by Fantasy Flight Games	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game	Pulp Cthulhu by Chaosium	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game	Magic the Gathering: Eldritch Moon by Wizards of the Coast	Organic		Yes	No
Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game	Bloodborne: The Card Game by CMON Limited	Organic		Yes	No
–				–	–