Dragon Award Analysis – First Look

So for starters look at this list of finalists and this set of projections from me.

So how did I do? Not bad, if I say so myself. 32 works on my list ended up being finalists and 25 didn’t. That’s a nice sweet spot for looking at what did and didn’t make it. More after the fold because there is going to be a LOT of tables.

First up, let’s use the results to answer the question: was it worthwhile for the Rabids and the Scrappy-Doos to campaign for Dragon Award nominations? The answer is: yes.

However, the Rabid success was mixed in an interesting way. In general, the Rabid nominees that were Castalia House books were finalists but the ones that weren’t were less successful.

These are the Rabid nominees that made it:

Category

Nominee

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

A Sea of Skulls by Vox Day

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Swan Knight’s Son by John C. Wright

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Starship Liberator by B.V. Larson and David VanDyke

Best Alternate History Novel

No Gods, Only Daimons by Kai Wai Cheah

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Stan Lee’s Lucky Man, Sky1

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Logan directed by James Mangold

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Gloomhaven by Cephalofair Games

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

Dark Souls: The Board Game by Steamforged Games

The first four are Castalia House books. The others are in non-book categories and may have been nominated regardless. The Rabid losers are more akin to the hostage-style nominees.

Category

Nominee

Best Science Fiction Novel

[not nominated]-ALBION LOST by Richard Fox

Best Apocalyptic Novel

[not nominated]-THE RETREAT #4: ALAMO by Craig diLouie, with Stephen Knight and Joe McKinney

Best Horror Novel

[not nominated]-THE HIDDEN PEOPLE by Alison Littlewood *

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

[not nominated]-TOTAL WAR: WARHAMMER by Sega

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

[not nominated]-LEGENDS OF CALLASIA by Boomzap Entertainment  (the mobile release was Sep 2016)

Anything Rabid nominated got a “High” status ranking on my projections in terms of likelihood of being nominated. Two works got “Very High” in terms of likelihood by being both Rabid and also on Scrappy-Doo recommendation lists – the Vox Day book and the John C Wright book.

I think the difference between the Castalia Rabids getting in and the Hostage-Book Rabids not getting in suggests that Vox put some effort into getting the house books nominated and there being less discipline for the non-Castalia House works.

The next rung down on my projections was “Medium” – these were works that appeared on multiple significant lists but weren’t Rabid nominees. The “Medium” category swept the board:

Category

Nominee

Best Science Fiction Novel

Escaping Infinity by Richard Paolinelli

Best Science Fiction Novel

The Secret Kings by Brian Niemeier

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Rachel and the Many Splendored Dreamland by L. Jagi Lamplighter

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

The Span of Empire by Eric Flint and David Carrico

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Star Realms: Rescue Run by Jon Del Arroz

Best Alternate History Novel

Breath of Earth by Beth Cato

Best Apocalyptic Novel

A Place Outside the Wild by Daniel Humphreys

Best Horror Novel

Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

Final Fantasy XV by Square Enix

All the works classed as Medium were nominated. The only non-novel was Final Fantasy XV which was an inevitable nominee anyway. The Eric Flint book wasn’t on multiple lists but I rated it Medium because of the general love for Flint and his association with the Dragons and his early request for nominations.

The “Low” category was more of a mix of stuff. In some cases this was because my estimate was based mainly on who was doing the nominating – consequently an author with a strong personal following that I wasn’t aware of, may have been rated “low” when in fact they had a legion of fans voting. Without numbers from the Dragon Awards, we will never know. I also classed movies like Doctor Strange and Wonder Woman as “low” just for consistency, even though I expected they would get organic votes.

Just looking at “Low” winners in the novel categories:

Category

Nominee

Best Alternate History Novel

Another Girl, Another Planet by Lou Antonelli

Best Apocalyptic Novel

Codename: Unsub by Declan Finn and Allan Yoskowitz

Best Horror Novel

Blood of Invidia by Tom Tinney and Morgen Batten

Lou Antonelli had done some spruiking of his book in the comment sections of some of the other Dragon slates and that maybe paid off.

More losers in the non-novels for “Low” but just looking at the novels we get:

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

[different category]-Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn

Best Alternate History Novel

[not nominated]-Crazy Horses by David J. West

Best Horror Novel

[not nominated]-Murphy’s Law of Vampires by Declan Finn

Declan Finn is pretty much in every category. He wrote lots of posts about the awards in multiple venues. Ten out of ten for effort I guess!

The “Very Low” status was more a measure of my lack of information more than anything. These tended to be works that were passing mentions in relation to the awards. The wins here are less surprising in hindsight.

Category

Nominee

Best Science Fiction Novel

Rise by Brian Guthrie

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Firebrand by A.J. Hartley

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Aliies and Enemies: Exiles by Amy J. Murphy

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Iron Dragoons by Richard Fox

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Caine’s Mutiny by Charles E. Gannon

Best Apocalyptic Novel

ZK: Falling by J.F. Holmes

Gannon gets nominated for proper awards, Murphy got a dragon nomination last year, Hartley is fairly popular I believe. I’m less familiar with the others.

Mind you, the other book mentioned in passing by Hartley didn’t get nominated:

Category

Nominee

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

[not nominated]-Ascend Online by Luke Chmilenko

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

[not nominated]-Draigon Weather by Paige L. Christie

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

[not nominated]-Towers of Earth by J.C.Conway

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

[not nominated]-Cathedrals of Glass: A Planet of Blood and Ice by A.J.Hartley

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

[not nominated]-In Dread Silence by C.J. Carella

What I haven’t checked in any of the cases is whether they were eligible.

OK, that’s all for now. My aggregated list of the projections + actual nominees is here if you want to play around with things 🙂

*[ETA: The Hidden People by Alison Littlewood  this was recorded incorrectly on my sheet twice and so has appeared in the tables as both nominated and not nominated and as part of the Rabid slate and as not part of it. It was nominated. However, on File 770 Alison Littlewood has commented that she was unaware of the nomination and has asked to be withdrawn http://file770.com/?p=36736#comment-687152 ]

Category

Nominee Status Rabid? Nominee Novel

Best Science Fiction Novel

Escaping Infinity by Richard Paolinelli

Medium

Yes Yes

Best Science Fiction Novel

The Secret Kings by Brian Niemeier

Medium

Yes Yes

Best Science Fiction Novel

Rise by Brian Guthrie

Very Low

Yes Yes

Best Science Fiction Novel

The Collapsing Empire by John Scalzi

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Science Fiction Novel

Space Tripping by Patrick Edwards

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Science Fiction Novel

Death’s End by Cixin Liu

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Science Fiction Novel

Babylon’s Ashes by James S.A. Corey

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Science Fiction Novel

A Closed and Common Orbit by Becky Chambers

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Science Fiction Novel

[not nominated]-ALBION LOST by Richard Fox

High

Rabid No Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

A Sea of Skulls by Vox Day

Very High

Rabid* Yes Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

Blood of the Earth by Faith Hunter

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

The Hearthstone Thief by Pippa DaCosta

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

Wings of Justice by Michael-Scott Earle

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

Monster Hunter Memoirs: Grunge by Larry Correia and John Ringo

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

Dangerous Ways by R.R. Virdi

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

Beast Master by Shayne Silvers

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

[different category]-Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn

Low

No Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

[not nominated]-Ascend Online by Luke Chmilenko

Very Low

No Yes

Best Fantasy Novel (Including Paranormal)

[not nominated]-Draigon Weather by Paige L. Christie

Very Low

No Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Swan Knight’s Son by John C. Wright

Very High

Rabid* Yes Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Rachel and the Many Splendored Dreamland by L. Jagi Lamplighter

Medium

Yes Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Firebrand by A.J. Hartley

Very Low

Yes Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

Defy the Stars by Claudia Gray

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

It’s All Fun and Games by Dave Barrett

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

The Hammer of Thor by Rick Riordan

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

A Court of Wings and Ruin by Sarah J. Maas

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

[not nominated]-Towers of Earth by J.C.Conway

Very Low

No Yes

Best Young Adult/Middle Grade Novel

[not nominated]-Cathedrals of Glass: A Planet of Blood and Ice by A.J.Hartley

Very Low

No Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Starship Liberator by B.V. Larson and David VanDyke

High

Rabid* Yes Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

The Span of Empire by Eric Flint and David Carrico

Medium

Yes Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Star Realms: Rescue Run by Jon Del Arroz

Medium

Yes Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Aliies and Enemies: Exiles by Amy J. Murphy

Very Low

Yes Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Iron Dragoons by Richard Fox

Very Low

Yes Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Caine’s Mutiny by Charles E. Gannon

Very Low

Yes Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Cartwright’s Cavaliers by Mark Wandrey

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

Invasion: Resistance by J.F. Holmes

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Military Science Fiction or Fantasy Novel

[not nominated]-In Dread Silence by C.J. Carella

Very Low

No Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

No Gods, Only Daimons by Kai Wai Cheah

High

Rabid* Yes Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

Breath of Earth by Beth Cato

Medium

Yes Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

Another Girl, Another Planet by Lou Antonelli

Low

Yes Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

Witchy Eye by D.J. Butler

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

A Change in Crime by D.R. Perry

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

1636: The Ottoman Onslaught by Eric Flint

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

Fallout: The Hot War by Harry Turtledove

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

The Last Days of New Paris by China Mieville

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Alternate History Novel

[not nominated]-Crazy Horses by David J. West

Low

No Yes

Best Apocalyptic Novel

A Place Outside the Wild by Daniel Humphreys

Medium

Yes Yes

Best Apocalyptic Novel

Codename: Unsub by Declan Finn and Allan Yoskowitz

Low

Yes Yes

Best Apocalyptic Novel

ZK: Falling by J.F. Holmes

Very Low

Yes Yes

Best Apocalyptic Novel

Walkaway by Cory Doctorow

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Apocalyptic Novel

The Obelisk Gate by N.K. Jemisin

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Apocalyptic Novel

American War by Omar El Akkad

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Apocalyptic Novel

The Seventh Age: Dawn by Rick Heinz

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Apocalyptic Novel

[not nominated]-THE RETREAT #4: ALAMO by Craig diLouie, with Stephen Knight and Joe McKinney

High

Rabid No Yes

Best Horror Novel

Live and Let Bite by Declan Finn

Medium

Yes Yes

Best Horror Novel

Blood of Invidia by Tom Tinney and Morgen Batten

Low

Yes Yes

Best Horror Novel

Donn’s Hill by Caryn Larrinaga

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Horror Novel

The Bleak December by Kevin G. Summers

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Horror Novel

A God in the Shed by J-F Dubeau

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Horror Novel

The Hidden People by Alison Littlewood*

High

Yes Yes

Best Horror Novel

Nothing Left to Lose by Dan Wells

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Horror Novel

The Changeling by Victor LaValle

Organic

Yes Yes

Best Horror Novel

[not nominated]-Murphy’s Law of Vampires by Declan Finn

Low

No Yes

Best Comic Book

Motor Girl by Terry Moore

Low

Yes No

Best Comic Book

The Dresden Files: Dog Men by Jim Butcher, Mark Powers, Diego Galindo

Organic

Yes No

Best Comic Book

Buffy The Vampire Slayer Season Eleven by Christos Gage, Rebekah Isaacs

Organic

Yes No

Best Comic Book

Monstress by Marjorie Liu, Sana Takeda

Organic

Yes No

Best Comic Book

Saga by Brian K. Vaughan, Fiona Staples

Organic

Yes No

Best Comic Book

Ms. Marvel by G. Willow Wilson, Takeshi Miyazawa

Organic

Yes No

Best Comic Book

Wynonna Earp Legends by Beau Smith, Tim Rozon, Melanie Scrofano, Chris Evenhuis

Organic

Yes No

Best Comic Book

[not nominated]-Green Valley, vol. 1, from Image

Low

No No

Best Comic Book

[not nominated]-Martian Magazine Comics, by Wormwood

Low

No No

Best Comic Book

[not nominated]-Red Sonja: The Long Walk to Oblivion by writer Erik Burnham and artist Tom Mandrake.

Low

No No

Best Graphic Novel

My Favorite Thing is Monsters by Emil Ferris

Organic

Yes No

Best Graphic Novel

Clive Barker Nightbreed #3 by Marc Andreyko, Clive Barker, Emmanuel Javier

Organic

Yes No

Best Graphic Novel

March Book 3 by John Lewis, Andrew Aydin

Organic

Yes No

Best Graphic Novel

Girl Genius: the Second Journey of Agatha Heterodyne, Book 2: The City of Lightning by Phil Foglio and Kaja Foglio

Organic

Yes No

Best Graphic Novel

Love is Love by Marc Andreyko, Sarah Gaydos, James S. Rich

Organic

Yes No

Best Graphic Novel

Stuck in My Head by J.R. Mounts

Organic

Yes No

Best Graphic Novel

Jim Butcher’s The Dresden Files: Wild Card by Jim Butcher, Carlos Gomez

Organic

Yes No

Best Graphic Novel

[not nominated]-Chew vol 12. – Sour Grapes by John Layman and Rob Guillory

Low

No No

Best Graphic Novel

[not nominated]-Kingsway West by Greg Pak, Dark Horse

Low

No No

Best Graphic Novel

[not nominated]-Nemu Nemu – Buzz Off Part One, Volume 4

Low

No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Stan Lee’s Lucky Man, Sky1

High

Rabid Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Stranger Things, Netflix

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Wynonna Earp, Syfy

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Lucifer, Fox

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Marvel’s Agents of Shield, ABC

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Westworld, HBO

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

The Expanse, Syfy

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

Doctor Who, BBC

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

[not nominated]-Killjoys

Low

No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

[not nominated]-Sleepy Hollow

Low

No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy TV Series, TV or Internet

[not nominated]-Voltron: Legendary Defender, Netflix

Low

No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Logan directed by James Mangold

High

Rabid Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Passengers directed by Morten Tyldum

Low

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Doctor Strange directed by Scott Derrickson

Low

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Wonder Woman directed by Patty Jenkins

Low

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story directed by Gareth Edwards

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 directed by James Gunn

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

Arrival directed by Denis Villeneuve

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Movie

[not nominated]-Strike Witches: The Movie, Kazuhiro Takamura

Low

No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

Final Fantasy XV by Square Enix

Medium

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild by Nintendo

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

Titanfall 2 by Respawn Entertainment

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

Dishonored 2 by Arkane Studios

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

NieR: Automata by PlatinumGames

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

Mass Effect: Andromeda by Bioware

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy PC / Console Game

[not nominated]-TOTAL WAR: WARHAMMER by Sega

High

Rabid No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

Monument Valley 2 by Ustwogames

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

Super Mario Run by Nintendo

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

Con Man: The Game by Monkey Strength Productions

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

Pokemon GO by Niantic

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

Fire Emblem Heroes by Nintendo

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

Sky Dancer by Pine Entertainment

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

[not nominated]-LEGENDS OF CALLASIA by Boomzap Entertainment  (the mobile release was Sep 2016)

High

Rabid No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Mobile Game

[not nominated]-Epic Card Game Digital

Low

No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Gloomhaven by Cephalofair Games

High

Rabid Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Scythe by Stonemaier Games

Low

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Hero Realms by White Wizard Games

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Mansions of Madness (Second Edition) by Fantasy Flight Games

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Betrayal at House on the Hill: Widow’s Walk by Avalon Hill

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

Terraforming Mars by Stronghold Games

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Board Game

[not nominated]-Hero Realms

Low

No No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

Dark Souls: The Board Game by Steamforged Games

High

Rabid Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

Star Wars: Destiny by Fantasy Flight Games

Low

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

A Shadow Across the Galaxy X-Wing Wave X by Fantasy Flight Games

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

Pulp Cthulhu by Chaosium

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

Magic the Gathering: Eldritch Moon by Wizards of the Coast

Organic

Yes No

Best Science Fiction or Fantasy Miniatures / Collectible Card / Role-Playing Game

Bloodborne: The Card Game by CMON Limited

Organic

Yes No

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3 comments

  1. Mark

    An interesting tidbit for you – it looks like quite a few finalists are linked by being published on Inkshares. I speculate they may have a bit of a community that got interested in the award:
    Space Tripping by Patrick Edwards
    Rise by Brian Guthrie (along with Space Tripping these won different Nerdist contests)
    The Seventh Age: Dawn by Rick Heinz
    A God in the Shed by J-F Dubeau
    It’s All Fun and Games by Dave Barrett.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Lurkertype

    I finally found my Dragon voting link in my Spam folder (make your own joke) and this and your other posts were helpful, as of course were Mike and Cora.

    Like