Some graphs for February

I’m jumping between two different topics rather than doing separate posts.

Firstly, global temperatures. As per usual, I’m looking at the satellite data set from UAH, not because it’s the best but because it avoids a couple of bad faith arguments about the data:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/02/uah-global-temperature-update-for-january-2021-0-12-deg-c-new-base-period/

La Niña slowing things down right now, making for a relatively wet summer in Australia. Not wet enough to avoid bushfires though https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/02/fierce-bushfire-in-perth-hills-is-a-threat-to-lives-and-homes-warns-wa-premier


Jumping to the pandemic, a question I was asked is when we will see vaccinations make an impact on Covid cases? I haven’t found an article on that but it is a good question. The short answer is “not yet” looking at the graphs and it might not ever.

Currently, Israel has the most intensive vaccination program (but foolishly not originally for everybody). This chart shows does administered per 100 people for a range of countries:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Here is the cumulative case numbers relative to population size for the top three countries for vaccination roll out. It’s way too early to see any impact.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases#world-maps-confirmed-cases-relative-to-the-size-of-the-population

Vaccines may not impact these numbers at all (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32318-7/fulltext ) but should impact mortality and other impacts (i.e. covid might well stick around but do less damage).

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6 responses to “Some graphs for February”

  1. re: the temperature. So far, our minimum temperature has been about -5.5 C this winter (North Carolina, USA). That’s about 10 degrees warmer than the average winter minimum for our climate zone, and we’re now at the point in the year when temperatures start to go up. For the past ten years or so, temperatures have rarely dropped to that expected winter minimum, but this winter is on target to be by far the mildest since I moved here 23 years ago. La Nina tends to give the southeastern U.S. mild winters, but still…

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    • We’ve had a very warm winter too. Late January/early February is often when we get a sudden cold night or two — and we’re forecast to have one night down to 16 F next week. That’ll be the lowest we’ve been all winter. But we’re in climate zone 7a, which means our average lowest temp should be 0-5 F. So we’re running 10-15 degrees above normal.

      Back in 1990 we were categorized as zone 6b — average lowest temp -5-0. I don’t know when we were reclassified, but it’s been more than 10 years in any case.

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  2. We had a few days of rain in Northern California (and snow in the mountains) but now it’s warmer and drier and as I often in the before times spent President’s Day weekend outdoors, that might be it. 😦 La Nina years are dry anyway, we may have fires till the next El Nino comes along.

    66 this weekend, but no vaccine in sight for us. They’re still working on getting health care workers and nursing home residents. I think they all get 2 shots before they move on to the over-70s, then the over-65s, then those with conditions… likely they won’t get to me till late summer. 😦 By which time things will be on fire again so I won’t be going out much anyway.

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  3. A La Nina year usually just means a milder summer here, and we often miss out on the flooding rains the east coast gets. However, last week we managed to have the wettest January day in 50 years. That was still only about 30 mm, but that’s a lot of rain by our standards, especially in January, when the usual amount is near enough to zero.

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  4. At 80% vaccinated (or recovered from actual infection) the exponential increase should turn into exponential decline. That assumes a particular value for r0, which won’t hold if some of the more aggressive mutations come to dominate new infections. And it definitely won’t hold if the new mutations are resistant to the vaccines.

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