Hugo Stats Time Some More

…that last post got a bit derailed by a sudden and immediate loss of personal objectivity.

http://www.worldcon.fi/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/HugoReport2_nominations.pdf

OK the category to look at for EPH fun is Best Fan Artist. This category has a wide field, an intrinsically hard to judge topic, and low participation by voters. This means a much higher chance of a tie. One ‘feature-not-a-bug’ qualities of EPH is that it should reduce actual ties but that does mean the results start to look complex and arbitrary.

Virtual ties (in my head at least) are also important – where the number of votes between two people is very close. If it is down to one vote then it is good that EPH adds more elements to the contest.

At the low end of the nominations were these outcomes: (v = votes, p = EPH points)

  • v 39 p 28.25 Spring Schoenhuth
  • v 33 p 29.00 Steve Stiles
  • v 34 p 24.00 Elizabeth Leggett
  • v 33 p 24.75 Ariela Housman
  • v 33 p 20.17 Galen Dara
  • v 27 p 19.57 Richard Man
  • v 28 p 14.83 Kathryn M. Weaver

Lots of close vote totals and low points. The stats PDF has a nice explanation:

“Pay attention, this is complicated.

If Galen Dara had had 0.33 more points, Elizabeth Leggett would have been eliminated on an earlier count and Galen Dara would probably have been a finalist.

Ariela Housman needed 1 more vote to displace Elizabeth Leggett from the final ballot.

To do the same, Richard Man needed at most another 7 votes worth 4.43 more points, Megan Lara needed at most another 9 votes worth 8.00 points, and Kathryn Weaver needed at most another 9.17 points.

Steve Stiles would have been displaced by Ariela Housman with 5.25 fewer points, and Spring Schoenhuth would have been displaced by Ariela Housman with 7 fewer votes, or 6 fewer votes worth more than 3.5 points.

If Spring Schoenhuth had had precisely 6 fewer votes worth precisely 3.5 points, she and Ariela Housman would have tied for the last ballot spot and both would have qualified when Mansik Yang was disqualified.

Put another way. If Galen Dara had been *less* popular with people who had voted for higher ranked nominees THEN she might have made the ballot. Likewise, if Steve Stiles’s support was more common among the other top rated nominees then he wouldn’t have made the ballot.

Is that fair? YES! Look at what it is doing. In borderline cases, close races are being decided by results that MAXIMISE the number of voters the resulting set of finalists represent. Put another way, more voters get somebody they voted for in the list of finalists. OK, in this case, the loaf is getting sliced microscopically thin but the only super-fair way of resolving this would have been to have 9 or 10 finalists.


Onto the Rabid nomination vote (not counting hostages).

  • Novel 85 votes
  • Novelette 77 votes
  • Short Story 87 votes
  • Best Editor Long 83 votes
  • Semipro 80 votes
  • Fanzine 85 votes
  • Fancast 76 votes
  • Fan writer 80 votes
  • Campbell 91 votes

J.Mulrooney, the Castalia House nominee for Best Novel and the Campbell got 6 more votes for the Campbell than for Best Novel – which is a bit odd I suppose. John C Wright’s Short Story would have also picked up some votes from random Puppies still involved and I’d have thought it would have landed further from the Rabid mean…but it was effin awful even by JCW’s standards so maybe not.

So a mean in the low 70s and a median of 83 votes. Which looks to be irrelevant because those votes are probably all from 2016 members. The Rabid vote drops precipitously in the final numbers.

  • Novelette 45 votes
  • Short story 58 votes
  • Best Editor Long 32 votes
  • Semipro 17 votes (ouch)
  • Fanzine 22 votes
  • Fancast 15 votes
  • Fanwriter 20 votes
  • Campbell 26 votes

That’s it for now. Have to eat ice-cream for breakfast it seems ๐Ÿ™‚

 

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23 comments

      • Mark

        I’m not clear on what they’re presenting for the longlist entries – the number of points they were on just before elimination?
        Does it imply a set of 50 ballots with a) Morgan and b) A N Other selected from people who all finished above Morgan?
        There’s an implication but I’m trying not to jump to it too quickly…

        Like

      • Mark

        Durrh, the correct answer has been pointed out to me on F770 – they “crafted” the ballots with 50 split between Morgan and Jeffro, and then another 30 bullet voting Jeffro. That way when Morgan got eliminated Jeffro got the full 80.
        Presumably it was a test to see if they could craft a chance at 2 noms while still guaranteeing 1 nom.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Andrew M

        Is this the first proof of actual conspiratorial voting (as opposed to someone just making a recommendation and a lot of people following it)?

        Like

  1. Contrarius

    How embarrassing — VD himself could only come up with 32 first-place votes, while the next least popular vote-getter got 168. Quite a disparity there.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Lurkertype

    You got almost the same amount of votes as Teddy without having to insult others, collect pathetic Dead Elk, or buy memberships for anyone!

    You’re totally entitled to do the Nelson point and laugh HA-ha!

    Like

      • Space Oddity

        Urrr… to clarify–he is presently implying that the utter tanking of the Rabids by the broadest margin yet to so many female and minority artists proves that the Hugos are now worthless, and so he doesn’t actually need one, nor does his beloved Castalia House.

        Venturing into the hive of scum and villainy that are his blog’s comments, it’s clear that the Elk aren’t sure that they all agree.

        Liked by 1 person

  3. Pingback: Pixel Scroll 8/13/17 The Filers On The Hill See The Scroll Going Down, And The Eyes In Their Heads See The Pixels Spinning Round | File 770
  4. JJ

    I think that both the Novelette and Short Story numbers on the final ballot partially reflect personal fan bases which are separate from the Puppies, and that VD’s 32 Editor votes reflect what remains of the minions who were invested enough to pay for another membership this year.

    Since EPH was (thankfully) re-ratified this year, I don’t expect many of them being willing to pay again next year — and I highly doubt that VD will post a Hugo slate next year, because the lack of Rabid participation would be very obvious when none of his picks made the final ballot.

    Like

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