Global Sattelite Temperatures for July

This is the latest graph for the UAH sattelite (lower tropospheric) temperature anomalies.


I added the orange line to make it easier to see how the latest result compares with past results.

As I’ve explained before, other data sets may be better than this one but I like to point at this one precisely because in principle it is the record more favoured by global warming denialist/contrarians. In reality they tend to shop around for whatever data set suits their argument of the day but the UAH set has the advantage of not being based on ground weather stations and is maintained by Dr Roy Spencer who is sympathetic to their viewpoints.

To recap: the denialist narrative was that 2015/2016 was just a natural occuring cyclical blip of high temperatures caused by a El Nino. The empahsis is on the “just” – in reality that was a powerful El Nino event but global warming contributed. What’s the difference between the two claims? The denialist predicted that there would then be a massive drop big enough to bring those average temperatures down to historically normal levels. As we can see that isn’t what happened – after temperatures peaked there was a decline but the new ‘low’ is comparable with old ‘highs’.

Does that mean there might not be further falls in temperature? No, temperatures will fluctuate but the long term trend keeps going up and ‘natural cycles’ just don’t work as an explanation of that trend.