There are 16o Rabid Puppies

This is a follow up to Estimating Rabid Puppy Numbers and also to a comment Greg Hullender made at Chaos Horizon https://chaoshorizon.wordpress.com/2016/08/20/2016-hugos-some-initial-stat-analysis/#comment-1725

That number 165 (or close to it) appears quite a bit over the years in connection with Vox Day. I wonder if it actually means anything.

There have been four votes at the Hugo Awards with Vox as the candidate or author:

2014 Best Novelette Opera Vita Aeterna 161 1st Preferences
2015 Best Editor Short Form Vox Day 586 1st Preferences
2015 Best Editor Long Form Vox Day 166 1st Preferences
2016 Best Editor Long Form Vox Day 165 1st Preferences

[Other cases: 2015 Nominations: Best Editor Long Form Vox Day 166, Best Editor Short Form Vox Day 162]

Only the 2015 Short Form is different, in the year of maximum Puppyage. The doubly odd thing, is that it is Long Form that is the odd case for 2015 because in that category, that year, Vox had publically stated his 1st preference was fro Toni Weisskopf. I speculated at the time, that a core set of puppies must have voted for him so that he didn’t get a humiliatingly low vote.

However, given the pattern, it does rather look like there are 160ish core Rabids.

 

 

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6 comments

  1. greghullender

    I’ve been of the opinion (with no evidence) that it represents the number of actual, long-term fans who are Vox Day supporters. These are folks who routinely buy WSFS memberships, but who genuinely support his platform. The other puppy votes (I speculate) are from people from outside fandom who bought one-time memberships in 2015 and were still eligible to nominate (but not vote) in 2016. After he failed to win anything in 2015, those folks still voted for him in the 2016 nominations, but few if any were willing to shell out $50 just to lose again.

    A critical test of that hypothesis will be to see how many people nominate for him in 2017.

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    • camestrosfelapton

      Maybe, but then I’d think those people would also have put Toni W no1 in 2015. I think it is the number of people Vox communicates directly with – but that sounds tad paranoid.

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      • Mark

        No, I think it’s a reasonable estimate of his hardcore who join the private chats etc.

        The big discrepancy is the 586 in BE short, vs 166 in BE long. As I recall, no-one could work out what even made him eligible for long, so I doubt anyone outside his core would consider voting for him there.

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